5 things that Buhari can do to get Nigeria back on track-Washington Post
5 things that Buhari can do to get Nigeria back on track-Washington Post
of the stereotypical Nigerian politician: incorruptible, soft-spoken,
self-effacing and deliberate. He embraces the nickname “Baba Go-Slow and
Steady.” Buhari’s unhurried style has its downsides, however: It took him
an unprecedented four months to name a solid but unextraordinary cabinet.
His reform agenda appears to be sauntering out of the gates, according to
the civil society-run Buharimeter.
In the meantime, the challenges facing Africa’s most populous nation and
largest economy continue to grow: Oil revenues are down, currency value
has slipped and Boko Haram has killed more than 1,700 since June.
Nigerians nevertheless expect their new president’s reform agenda to show
tangible results, and soon. Given these imperatives, here are five things
Buhari can do to get the ball rolling:
1. Carefully clean house. Buhari’s reform agenda probably faces its
greatest threat from corrupt, old-school politicians within his own All
Progressives Congress (APC) party. Buhari should neutralize some of the
APC’s shadiest figures, who could emerge as “veto players,” as described
in Carl LeVan’s recent book.
Examples of these kleptocrats are not hard to find. The U.S. Department
of Justice has accused one sitting APC governor of helping former dictator
Sani Abacha steal at least $458 million from state coffers. Likewise,
both APC candidates in the upcoming Kogi and Bayelsa State governorship
elections have been indicted by Nigeria’s anti-corruption agency.
Admittedly, housecleaning carries political risks for Buhari. After all,
his victorious electoral coalition included powerful defectors from former
president Goodluck Jonathan’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP). If he
unduly antagonizes these establishment figures, they could derail his
party’s newfound dominance by joining their former comrades in the
opposition PDP.
2. Pare down the parastatals. Buhari has an opportunity to realize
immediate savings by eliminating or merging some of Nigeria’s more than
500 federal parastatals and boards. Parastatals are government-operated
companies or commercial agencies. Pundits allege that past presidents
used parastatal appointments to cultivate national political allies and
provincial cronies. These institutions, which range from the lucrative to
the modest to the moribund, have long been a cornerstone of corruption in
Nigeria — a complicated topic expertly explained by Daniel Jordan Smith.
Buhari may also want to disband some nice-to-have but non-essential
parastatals in light of competing priorities and current fiscal
constraints. Does Nigeria need to spend more than $4 million annually on
a Center for Space Transport and Propulsion? Is there an effort underway
to rescue the supposedly stranded Nigerian astronaut featured in this
legendary scam letter?
3. Tame the white elephants. Buhari’s apparent determination to revive
two “white elephant” economic sectors — domestic oil refineries and steel
mills — worry industry experts. Nigeria is replete with these kinds of
investment projects where state-owned enterprises are funded for long
periods even if they incur huge losses. For decades, Nigerian leaders
have thrown good money after bad at these projects because, as Robinson
and Torvik argue, white elephant projects yield short-term political
gains.
Buhari, like any of the rest of us, could stumble into a sunk cost dilemma
where his efforts to maximize future returns of Nigeria’s white elephants
only increase their cumulative losses. Instead, he should address the
graft, inconsistent policies and opaque privatization deals that experts
say turned these industries into white elephants in the first place.
4. Rein in subnational debt. As Buhari tries to put Nigeria’s public
finances back in order, the balance sheets of the country’s 36 states are
sinking deeper into the red. In a decentralized federal system like
Nigeria’s, state budgets typically affect the lives of ordinary citizens
more than federal spending does. Since taking office, Buhari has already
bailed out 27 cash-strapped states to the tune of $2.1 billion. States’
borrowing trends are risky and need to be addressed, according to a recent
report by the African Development Bank.
All but a few states generate minimal revenue outside of their monthly
allocation of Nigeria’s anemic oil income. While Nigeria’s national debt
is still relatively low by global standards, fiscal federalism means that
if states default on their debts, the federal government foots the bill.
Buhari’s reasons for watching state borrowing should also be personal: One
of the stated reasons for the 1983 military coup that first brought him to
power was runaway borrowing by state governors.
5. Legislate for the long run. Nigeria will need to feel the “Buhari
Effect” (the sense, evident in a recent New York Times article, that there
is a new sheriff in town) long after the president’s tenure is over. The
best way for him to protect his legacy is to partner with the National
Assembly to enact legislation enshrining key reforms. With few other
politicians like him on the horizon, Buhari should put his legacy in
writing.
A good place to start would be an act prohibiting the use of “security
votes.” Both a definitive article by Uche et al. and a 2007 Human Rights
Watch report illustrate how these secretive budgetary line items are used
by officials at all levels of government as slush funds. Even Nigeria’s
leading anti-corruption agency had a $1,000,000 security vote included in
its 2014 budget. Buhari has his work cut out for him.
Matthew Page is an international affairs fellow at the Council on Foreign
Relations. You can follow him on Twitter at @MatthewTPage.
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